More election speculation

Ruth over at Rootleweb points to this article in the Globe & Mail about tomorrow's confidence votes.

Tony Valeri told CTV's Question Period:

"I really think they (the Conservatives) should think long and hard," Liberal House Leader Tony Valeri told CTV's current affairs program Question Period. "If they want to cause an election, they certainly have the ability to do that with the numbers that they have."

The breakdown looks like this as near as I can tell:

Conservatives: 97 (minus Grewal -- and assuming Stinson & Chatters are there or paired)
Bloc 54
Total 151


Liberals 134 (I'm counting Parrish as a Liberal here)
NDP 19
Total 153

Independents (Cadman, Kilgour, O'Brien)

They're saying Cadman won't be there. Even if both of the other Independents are there, and if both were to vote against the government -- it still would just bring the Conservative/Bloc to a tie with the Liberal/NDP.

This is significant because Valeri is clearing painting the scene as though the Liberals have only a slim grip on power, when in fact, their ranks have seen a net increase since the last confidence vote, and the Conservatives have seen a net decrease.

Also significant:

The opposition can challenge certain aspects of the spending and the Conservatives have so far given notice that they will force votes on the Privy Council Office's $125-million budget, as well as two separate votes granting money for the federal gun registry.
It is expected that Mr. Valeri will declare those votes to be matters of confidence in the government.

The Bloc is in favour of the Gun Registry in principle, but against what they see as mismanagement of money where it is involved. The NDP is for gun control, but against the money wasted through Liberal handling of it. The Conservatives will vote against putting any more money into the gun registry, that leaves the fate of this motion up to the Bloc and the NDP.

Assuming everyone has their full contingent -- the government has no excuse to fall on any of these bills. If people are absent on the Conservative side, it will be because they are actively trying avoid an election, although they have said they won't do that.

Tony Valeri is laying the groundwork for the blame game once this is all over. Rootleweb and Civitatensis both discuss election-type billboards popping up in Alberta. I have a feeling that if the government doesn't fall over these money bills, it won't be because they didn't try.

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